"There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent”- Lao Tzu
The current mess facing U.S. and Israeli leaders proves just how right Lao Tzu was.
Like the mythical Phoenix rising from its own ashes, Iran has roared back to life after its leadership was supposedly destroyed. Washington and Jerusalem's failure to see this coming shows they made the ultimate mistake: they thought the fight was over before it even began.
“Kill the head, and the body collapses.” This was the gamble made by the U.S. and Israel just an hour after their missiles hit Iran on February 28, effectively wiping out the country's top leadership.
The almost finished Iran, however, had other ideas to send a message that “It’s not finished, but alive and fight till death”.
If we go by the words of US leadership, America has the world’s most powerful military, and ‘no country in the world can come close to the US military, then how did Iran manage to spring the surprise?
This is not a "do what you think is right" (Jo uchith smajho woh karo) chaotic reaction.
But its current actions appear to be driven by a "Hum toh dubenge, magar thujhe saath leke dubenge" (We will sink, but we will take you with us) mindset.
By making the war exceedingly tough and costly for U.S. allies and global energy markets, Iran aims to force a situation where the international community demands a ceasefire, thereby ensuring the survival of the Islamic Republic system even if its current leaders have fallen.
To the utter surprise of many US-Israel supporters, has defied expectations of a quick collapse by implementing a "regionalized" strategy of retaliation.
Rather than crumbling, Iran has adopted a "suicide pact" mentality of mutual destruction, utilizing an "escalate to de-escalate" approach to force a ceasefire by increasing the bloodshed for U.S. allies., forcing the U.S. to abandon its expectation of a quick victory and begin evacuating its citizens, signalling an impending, prolonged conflict.
It turns out Iran spent years preparing for the day its leaders might be killed. They built a system that keeps fighting even without a "head." While the U.S. and Israel were busy celebrating their first win, Iran dragged its neighbours like, Jordan, and Cyprus and other US allies that facilitate US military facilities into the fight to make sure the whole region feels the pain.
Now, Washington is admitting the war could last over a month. This proves they had no plan for "Day Two." While Iran used clever tactics to hog the “Tactical Brilliance”, the U.S. and Israel got lost in a “Strategic Fog,” failing to see the bigger picture because they were blinded by their own initial success.
It means Tehran doesn’t need to win only to survive long enough to inflict more troubles for the US leadership.
Meanwhile, experts suggest the U.S. was pushed into this mess by the "Israel Lobby," finding itself trapped in a conflict it once wanted to avoid but is now leading according to Israel’s playbook.
With Iran appearing to be nowhere surrendering, the US forces are now set for a long haul in the Middle East no longer following its plan, but strictly adhering to Israeli’s playbook and as such the only way left for it to be safe is to completely dismantle the Iranian regime.
As the war drags on, the U.S. seems to have no clear answers. Its goals keep shifting, from regime change to deploying boots for regime change, to stopping a nuclear program that the President previously claimed was already destroyed. The U.S. is fighting a war without explaining what a "win" actually looks like.
It’s just fighting a war without clearly explaining why or what the final "win" looks like, while it plunged the Middle East into wider war, with the list of casualties, human, strategic and economic, being lengthened by the hour.
As the war widens, it is clear there will be no real victors, but some will suffer heavier losses than others.
This uncertainty is a massive threat to India. Chaos in Iran doesn't stay there. It has the potential to spread toward India’s borders threatening its geopolitical strategies, energy and economic securities.
The claims of regime change, as of now appear a smoke screen to the US objectives to keep its total control over the region, a goal that looks a lot like old-fashioned colonialism.
India’s "stoic silence" looks like quiet support for the US’ ultimate objective. It is disappointing that India, which claims to lead the developing world, seems to think that the world is only safe when the world order is under the control of the US.
India needs to wake up from this myopic perception. It is time for Indian leaders to use their friendship with both the U.S. and Iran to stop this crisis before it turns into a global disaster.
But for now, this Majrooh Sultanpuri’s heart rendering couplet “Jala hai jism jahan dil bhi jal gaya hoga,/Kuredte ho jo ab raakh, kya talash-te ho?" (The body has burned, and the heart must have burned too/As you sift through the ashes now, what exactly are you looking for?) perfectly sums up the unintended consequences of the chaos in Middle East, a warning that by attacking Iran, the U.S. has set a fire that will now consume its allies and the entire Middle East.
